***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 25.5 31.7 33.8 69.2 42.2 38.8 24.9 38.2 54.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 24.7 30.5 33.3 69.4 42.3 38.0 24.3 36.1 50.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 48.3 34.0 34.3 69.2 41.6 38.6 27.8 40.7 56.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 62.9 48.3 40.2 72.8 45.9 41.6 35.1 53.1 74.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.3 33.7 36.1 72.4 44.2 40.3 25.2 38.3 54.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 27.3 37.0 41.7 76.6 44.7 40.4 29.3 41.0 54.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.8 29.7 34.0 71.1 43.4 38.8 22.5 34.9 50.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 44.4 52.7 41.3 71.5 41.0 38.6 45.4 61.6 79.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 48.2 36.5 36.9 72.7 43.8 40.2 28.5 41.2 56.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 53.6 38.6 41.4 71.5 41.4 39.0 32.4 45.7 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 45.2 31.6 34.7 70.0 41.8 38.8 25.7 37.7 52.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 24.2 30.3 34.9 70.3 41.5 38.6 24.4 37.0 52.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 27.8 36.1 38.2 73.5 43.9 40.1 28.4 40.9 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 66.0 47.7 47.0 74.5 42.3 39.0 38.3 55.9 76.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 24.7 35.0 38.2 71.1 47.4 41.6 24.2 37.1 53.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.1 28.0 36.0 71.7 43.0 39.5 21.5 32.9 46.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 21.2 28.1 34.3 70.6 43.8 39.0 21.6 31.9 44.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 58.0 41.0 46.8 75.2 42.1 39.9 32.5 48.5 67.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 27.2 32.6 33.6 69.0 41.5 37.5 27.2 38.7 52.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 43.8 53.8 54.4 79.0 43.8 41.1 45.1 59.1 74.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 51.5 36.9 35.3 71.1 42.6 39.6 29.0 43.5 61.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 23.2 28.7 34.5 67.7 40.8 37.1 23.4 35.7 50.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 47.7 35.1 35.5 70.5 42.1 38.0 29.0 40.7 54.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 57.4 39.3 42.4 73.0 42.0 39.5 31.0 47.7 68.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 52.5 39.0 38.3 71.0 43.5 40.0 30.8 44.5 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.1 35.3 37.4 72.1 43.2 39.6 28.0 40.7 55.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.2 33.7 35.6 69.1 42.1 38.5 26.5 40.4 57.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 44.2 34.4 38.4 72.5 46.3 41.6 25.1 37.3 51.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 48.2 59.6 49.2 76.4 42.5 40.2 47.4 70.2 97.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.1 28.2 33.1 68.6 41.6 37.7 22.9 33.7 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------