***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 12.7 13.0 14.7 1.5 74.1 72.2 10.4 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 12.5 12.9 14.5 1.6 78.0 75.9 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 14.6 14.9 14.4 1.5 74.8 72.7 12.3 13.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 9.0 9.1 11.0 0.2 54.7 54.3 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 10.6 11.0 11.6 0.5 60.5 59.2 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 9.6 9.6 9.6 0.2 53.5 53.1 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 12.6 12.9 14.4 1.4 75.4 73.4 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.5 10.5 1.1 71.4 69.7 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 12.3 12.4 12.6 1.0 68.7 66.7 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.4 11.2 1.2 72.3 70.1 10.1 11.0 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 46 54 100 11.5 11.5 11.5 0.8 66.2 64.5 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 10.2 10.3 10.9 0.9 67.6 66.1 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.1 10.0 0.1 51.5 51.2 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.8 12.6 1.2 73.2 70.8 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 12.1 11.7 12.0 -0.2 46.5 46.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.7 11.6 10.6 0.2 53.9 53.3 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 12.8 13.3 14.1 1.8 80.5 78.4 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.0 11.2 10.3 1.2 73.4 71.0 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 12.7 13.1 14.4 1.6 78.0 76.0 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 7.2 7.4 8.5 1.2 74.7 72.6 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 12.0 12.1 13.8 1.1 70.1 68.2 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 11.9 12.2 14.0 1.6 78.0 76.2 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 12.3 12.6 14.2 1.5 76.9 75.1 9.6 10.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.3 12.4 1.2 73.4 71.2 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 12.5 12.7 13.2 1.1 69.7 67.8 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.1 9.7 -0.1 47.5 48.0 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 13.0 13.3 13.9 1.3 72.1 70.2 10.1 11.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 10.1 9.8 11.2 -0.1 47.2 47.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 10.2 10.5 9.7 1.2 74.2 72.0 7.8 8.9 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 12.9 13.2 14.6 1.5 75.6 73.6 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------