***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 11.6 12.0 13.8 1.7 77.6 72.6 9.8 10.6 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 12.1 12.6 13.6 1.6 77.6 72.6 9.7 10.8 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 14.1 14.6 13.7 1.8 79.5 75.1 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 9.9 10.6 11.5 1.6 79.3 74.1 7.3 8.5 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 11.2 12.1 11.8 2.0 84.9 79.5 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 10.0 10.8 10.4 2.0 84.0 79.0 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 12.0 12.4 13.6 1.6 76.3 71.3 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 6.3 7.2 10.6 2.2 86.1 82.2 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 12.0 12.9 12.4 2.3 86.6 81.4 9.6 10.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 11.6 12.5 11.1 2.3 87.7 83.2 9.5 10.4 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 11.2 12.1 11.6 2.1 86.6 81.7 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 10.4 11.2 11.2 2.0 85.2 81.0 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 10.9 11.8 10.9 2.1 86.2 81.2 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 12.1 12.7 12.3 2.1 84.3 80.0 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 11.6 11.9 11.7 1.3 74.4 70.0 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 12.1 12.9 11.3 2.0 85.2 80.2 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 12.0 12.6 13.5 1.8 80.4 74.5 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 10.6 11.6 10.5 2.3 87.3 83.0 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 11.9 12.4 13.7 1.7 79.1 74.4 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 6.8 7.5 9.2 2.2 86.2 82.1 4.8 5.6 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 11.7 12.5 13.2 2.1 82.9 77.8 9.3 10.3 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 11.0 11.6 13.5 1.9 82.5 76.6 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 11.6 12.1 13.5 1.8 81.1 76.6 9.3 10.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 11.4 12.0 12.1 2.1 84.4 80.2 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 12.3 13.0 12.2 1.7 79.6 74.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 10.8 11.4 11.1 2.0 82.9 78.5 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 12.9 13.6 13.0 1.7 78.9 73.4 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.4 11.0 11.7 1.5 77.6 73.0 8.1 9.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 10.1 11.0 9.9 2.1 85.8 81.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.7 13.7 1.6 76.7 72.1 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------