***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 8.1 10.1 11.8 0.4 57.8 55.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.9 10.1 11.6 0.4 57.9 55.7 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.2 11.5 0.4 58.6 56.1 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.6 7.4 9.3 0.3 55.4 54.1 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.1 9.4 9.4 0.5 60.4 57.5 7.4 8.7 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.8 8.1 0.6 62.7 60.4 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 8.4 10.2 11.7 0.4 58.3 56.1 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 4.8 4.4 8.2 0.6 62.2 59.7 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.6 9.9 0.6 61.9 58.2 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.2 8.6 0.6 63.0 59.6 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.8 9.2 0.6 62.2 59.3 7.9 9.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.5 8.8 0.4 59.2 57.9 6.8 7.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.2 8.3 0.5 59.8 58.4 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.8 10.0 0.6 63.6 59.6 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.0 9.6 0.1 51.3 51.1 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.5 8.8 0.5 59.8 58.0 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 10.9 10.5 11.5 0.6 61.8 58.3 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 9.5 9.2 8.1 0.6 63.7 60.2 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.3 10.2 11.5 0.4 58.2 55.8 8.5 9.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 5.9 5.5 7.1 0.7 65.1 61.5 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.9 10.0 10.9 0.5 59.4 56.3 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 10.1 9.5 11.4 0.5 61.0 57.5 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.8 11.2 0.4 59.2 56.3 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.0 9.8 0.6 62.7 59.2 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.3 10.3 10.1 0.4 57.3 55.1 8.5 9.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.0 8.7 0.3 56.1 56.1 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.2 10.7 10.9 0.4 58.4 56.0 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.5 9.5 0.2 53.7 53.1 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.3 7.7 0.6 64.4 61.2 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.5 10.5 11.7 0.3 57.1 55.2 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------