***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.7 8.8 10.1 0.1 51.5 52.6 7.3 8.7 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.1 8.8 9.9 0.1 51.7 52.6 7.5 8.7 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.8 9.9 0.1 51.9 53.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 6.1 7.5 -0.2 46.5 49.8 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.8 7.7 0.0 49.1 51.7 6.5 7.9 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.8 7.1 6.3 0.0 49.2 52.8 6.0 7.2 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.4 8.9 9.8 0.1 51.0 52.2 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.3 6.5 0.0 50.1 53.0 2.2 3.3 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.4 9.0 8.2 0.1 51.2 53.0 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.6 6.9 0.1 51.4 53.6 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.6 8.0 7.4 0.0 50.1 52.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.8 7.1 -0.2 47.0 50.7 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.2 7.2 6.4 -0.3 45.0 49.1 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.6 9.1 8.4 0.2 53.0 54.5 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.7 8.0 -0.2 45.2 48.6 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.7 7.0 -0.2 46.9 50.3 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.6 9.2 9.7 0.2 53.5 53.7 7.9 9.0 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.1 7.6 6.4 0.1 52.0 54.1 6.3 7.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 7.3 8.9 9.9 0.1 52.3 53.1 7.6 8.7 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.9 5.2 0.1 51.0 53.4 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.4 8.2 9.2 0.1 51.2 52.8 6.9 8.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.6 8.1 9.6 0.1 52.7 53.4 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.8 8.4 9.6 0.1 52.6 53.6 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.7 8.2 8.2 0.1 52.7 54.4 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 7.1 8.9 8.4 0.0 50.9 52.5 7.6 8.8 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.3 6.7 -0.5 41.8 46.2 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 6.8 9.0 9.2 0.1 51.3 52.6 7.4 8.8 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.0 7.0 7.7 -0.3 44.8 48.5 6.2 7.3 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 6.9 6.0 0.1 51.8 54.5 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 7.4 9.1 10.0 0.1 51.0 52.3 7.8 9.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------