***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.0 12.6 0.9 72.2 68.4 9.4 10.1 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 10.9 11.1 12.4 0.9 73.5 69.3 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 12.8 13.1 12.4 0.9 73.5 69.7 11.5 12.2 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.2 9.8 0.5 63.5 61.2 7.0 7.7 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 10.1 10.1 10.1 0.8 70.7 67.2 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.0 9.0 8.6 0.7 68.7 65.9 7.7 8.3 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 10.9 11.0 12.4 0.9 71.8 67.8 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 5.0 5.2 8.9 1.0 75.2 71.7 3.6 4.2 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 11.0 11.2 10.8 1.0 75.4 71.3 9.5 10.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 10.7 10.9 9.4 1.0 77.2 73.3 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 10.2 10.3 9.9 0.9 74.0 70.1 8.7 9.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 9.1 9.1 9.5 0.8 71.6 68.5 7.7 8.3 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 9.6 9.5 8.9 0.6 66.8 64.3 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 11.0 11.3 10.8 1.0 76.6 72.8 9.8 10.4 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 10.5 10.6 10.3 0.2 56.7 56.0 9.8 10.3 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.0 9.4 0.6 67.8 64.9 9.6 10.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.2 12.2 1.1 77.5 72.3 9.7 10.3 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 9.7 9.9 8.8 1.1 77.6 74.0 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 10.8 11.0 12.4 1.0 74.4 70.3 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 5.8 6.1 7.5 1.0 77.5 73.6 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 10.5 10.7 11.8 0.9 73.4 69.5 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.3 12.2 1.0 76.9 72.0 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.7 12.1 1.0 75.0 71.2 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 10.3 10.5 10.6 1.0 76.3 72.7 9.1 9.6 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 11.2 11.3 11.0 0.8 70.9 67.3 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.5 9.1 0.4 61.5 60.4 8.5 9.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 11.4 11.6 11.8 0.9 71.9 68.1 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.0 10.0 0.3 59.1 57.8 8.0 8.6 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 8.8 9.0 8.3 1.0 77.3 73.6 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.2 11.3 12.5 0.9 71.8 68.0 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------