***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 23.1 23.7 22.8 0.6 59.5 58.8 21.2 22.8 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 23.5 24.3 22.9 0.8 61.3 60.6 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 23.7 24.6 23.2 1.0 63.8 62.9 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 17.0 16.0 19.7 -0.4 44.3 44.7 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 24.2 24.7 21.4 0.5 57.2 56.7 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 23.7 23.0 19.0 -0.2 46.5 46.6 21.8 23.3 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 23.2 23.9 22.9 0.8 61.4 60.8 21.2 22.9 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 13.3 14.0 20.1 0.9 61.9 61.0 11.6 13.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 23.9 24.8 22.5 0.9 62.5 61.6 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 23.7 24.8 21.1 1.1 63.9 62.9 21.7 23.4 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 24.1 24.7 21.4 0.7 59.1 58.4 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 23.5 24.0 20.7 0.5 57.2 56.5 21.6 23.3 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 24.7 24.8 20.7 0.3 54.0 53.6 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 25.4 25.9 22.9 1.9 74.0 72.4 21.6 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 24.4 23.1 21.0 -0.7 39.3 40.1 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 25.0 25.2 20.9 0.3 54.5 54.1 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 22.7 23.7 22.7 1.0 64.5 63.8 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 24.3 24.5 20.7 1.6 69.8 68.5 20.9 22.6 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 23.3 24.3 23.1 1.0 63.4 62.6 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 20.6 20.7 18.8 1.5 69.4 68.0 17.4 18.9 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 23.8 24.6 23.0 0.9 62.3 61.4 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 48 52 100 24.6 24.8 23.0 1.2 67.3 66.4 21.3 23.0 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 24.8 24.9 23.4 1.3 67.6 66.4 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.3 22.4 1.6 71.1 69.7 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 23.5 23.9 21.4 0.5 57.3 56.9 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 24.4 24.1 19.8 -0.1 48.6 48.6 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 23.4 24.1 22.3 0.7 60.8 60.1 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 24.6 23.3 20.3 -0.6 41.0 41.6 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 20.2 20.5 20.1 1.8 72.3 70.8 16.5 18.2 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 23.3 24.0 23.0 0.7 60.4 59.8 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------