***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.0 20.8 0.0 50.7 52.4 19.6 21.0 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.4 20.5 -0.2 47.1 49.7 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 20.1 21.7 20.9 0.1 51.2 52.8 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.4 14.5 19.1 0.1 51.1 52.7 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 23.3 22.0 19.6 0.3 54.7 55.4 20.2 21.7 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 19.0 21.4 18.5 0.6 58.0 57.7 19.2 20.7 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 19.8 21.0 20.4 -0.2 47.5 49.9 20.0 21.2 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 12.7 11.9 18.8 0.7 59.8 59.3 9.8 11.1 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 19.9 22.0 20.1 0.4 55.7 56.0 20.1 21.5 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 22.7 21.9 19.3 0.6 58.5 58.2 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 23.2 22.2 19.5 0.5 57.4 57.5 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.7 19.4 0.5 57.4 57.7 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.4 19.0 0.4 55.4 56.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.6 20.1 0.5 57.2 57.0 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.1 19.1 -0.1 48.2 50.4 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 20.7 22.9 19.2 0.4 55.7 56.4 21.0 22.4 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 19.5 20.7 20.2 -0.1 47.9 50.1 19.7 20.9 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 22.3 21.6 18.9 0.8 60.1 59.4 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 19.9 21.3 20.7 -0.1 48.6 50.8 20.1 21.4 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 18.9 18.3 17.2 0.9 62.7 61.3 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 19.9 21.8 20.5 0.2 53.3 54.3 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.6 20.4 0.0 49.8 51.5 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.8 20.8 0.1 52.0 53.2 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.2 20.0 0.5 57.2 57.1 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 19.4 21.2 19.5 0.2 52.7 53.8 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.0 18.9 0.3 54.3 55.7 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 19.7 21.4 20.1 0.2 52.3 53.4 19.9 21.3 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.4 19.3 0.0 50.1 52.0 19.8 21.4 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 18.1 17.5 18.2 0.9 61.7 60.5 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 19.9 21.1 20.6 -0.2 47.6 50.1 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------