***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 21.0 20.1 18.5 -0.3 46.5 48.7 18.9 20.3 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 18.9 20.2 18.4 -0.3 46.1 48.2 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 21.3 20.3 18.5 -0.3 46.0 48.2 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.1 16.7 -0.4 45.0 47.7 11.8 13.6 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 21.3 20.3 17.0 -0.3 45.6 48.1 19.2 20.7 22.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.0 15.9 -0.1 48.5 50.3 18.6 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 18.5 19.9 18.4 -0.2 47.2 49.2 18.8 20.1 21.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.8 16.0 -0.3 47.0 49.4 9.7 11.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.4 17.4 -0.3 45.9 48.4 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 20.9 20.1 16.6 -0.3 46.8 49.2 18.9 20.4 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.5 16.8 -0.3 46.4 48.8 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.0 19.9 16.7 -0.4 45.7 48.4 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 21.8 20.8 16.4 -0.4 45.6 48.3 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 21.7 20.9 17.6 -0.1 48.6 50.0 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 20.5 19.6 16.9 -0.4 44.9 47.7 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.2 16.6 -0.3 46.0 48.5 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 20.5 19.8 18.2 -0.1 48.0 49.6 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.2 19.5 16.2 -0.1 48.4 50.2 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 18.7 20.0 18.5 -0.3 45.9 48.0 18.9 20.4 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.7 14.5 -0.1 49.1 50.9 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.3 18.0 -0.3 45.6 48.0 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.4 18.3 -0.2 47.3 49.0 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.5 18.5 -0.3 46.6 48.5 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 21.4 20.6 17.5 -0.2 48.0 49.7 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 20.5 19.8 17.2 -0.2 46.9 49.2 18.8 20.0 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.5 20.5 16.3 -0.5 44.6 47.6 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.0 20.2 17.9 -0.2 47.7 49.7 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 20.8 19.6 16.8 -0.4 44.4 47.3 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.8 15.5 -0.1 49.3 50.9 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 18.6 19.9 18.5 -0.3 45.8 48.0 18.9 20.2 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------