***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 22.0 21.9 21.0 0.2 55.0 54.1 20.9 21.7 22.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.2 20.9 0.1 52.6 52.2 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.6 21.2 0.4 58.1 56.4 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.2 19.1 0.0 50.5 50.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 22.8 22.9 19.8 0.4 59.0 57.3 21.6 22.5 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 22.0 22.3 18.4 0.5 60.3 58.6 20.8 21.7 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.9 20.8 0.1 52.8 52.4 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.7 18.8 0.8 65.8 62.7 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 22.6 22.9 20.4 0.6 62.0 59.6 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 22.3 22.8 19.5 0.8 65.4 62.2 21.0 22.0 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 22.7 23.0 19.7 0.6 62.5 60.0 21.5 22.4 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 22.1 22.5 19.5 0.6 61.8 59.6 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 23.1 23.3 19.2 0.5 59.3 57.8 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 23.5 23.5 20.5 0.9 68.8 64.5 21.4 22.4 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.9 19.4 -0.2 45.7 47.1 21.3 22.1 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 23.5 23.7 19.5 0.5 59.6 57.9 22.4 23.3 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.6 20.6 0.2 54.5 53.8 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 22.2 22.4 19.1 1.0 69.9 65.5 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.1 21.1 0.2 55.1 54.0 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 18.7 19.0 17.3 1.1 71.4 66.8 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.7 20.9 0.5 59.4 57.5 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.5 20.8 0.3 57.4 55.9 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 22.4 22.6 21.2 0.5 60.3 58.0 21.3 22.1 22.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 22.5 23.1 20.4 0.9 67.8 63.7 21.2 22.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.0 19.7 0.3 56.0 55.0 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 22.8 22.9 18.9 0.3 56.4 55.5 21.6 22.5 23.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.2 20.4 0.3 56.6 55.4 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.2 19.4 -0.1 48.8 49.5 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 18.1 18.3 18.4 1.1 72.2 67.2 16.1 17.1 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.0 21.0 0.1 52.8 52.3 21.0 21.8 22.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------