***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 10.0 14.1 15.7 115.1 68.1 60.2 3.9 7.7 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.4 16.6 17.9 140.1 75.3 66.1 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.7 14.7 111.2 66.4 55.1 3.8 7.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.0 16.6 18.8 123.2 70.8 59.0 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.8 12.8 17.6 117.0 68.6 60.4 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 11.9 12.0 18.3 123.9 70.8 64.2 3.4 6.3 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.1 15.5 17.2 131.5 73.1 61.4 4.2 7.8 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.8 21.1 17.7 117.8 68.5 60.8 6.0 11.6 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 15.3 17.2 18.8 130.4 72.6 66.2 3.8 7.9 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 14.9 15.0 18.8 120.3 69.3 61.8 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.3 11.3 15.4 109.5 66.2 58.8 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.7 12.1 15.1 116.0 68.4 60.7 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 12.3 12.2 17.1 117.4 68.9 62.9 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.7 11.4 13.1 84.2 53.3 47.5 4.7 10.0 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.4 15.1 99.3 63.5 51.6 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.6 10.5 16.5 114.2 68.0 61.0 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.7 15.9 18.9 140.9 75.5 62.0 4.3 7.6 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 15.9 18.4 111.9 65.7 58.0 4.5 9.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 15.1 17.3 18.4 141.6 75.7 67.3 3.7 7.4 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 17.9 20.2 110.1 65.0 58.1 5.5 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.8 14.7 15.4 111.8 66.6 57.3 3.4 7.7 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 13.6 15.7 18.8 132.7 73.4 63.9 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.2 16.3 17.9 131.9 72.9 64.5 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.1 16.8 16.9 112.6 65.7 56.7 4.2 9.3 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.4 12.9 17.2 107.5 65.1 56.1 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.5 11.1 15.6 107.9 66.4 60.3 3.8 6.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.1 15.2 17.0 111.4 66.5 58.1 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 12.4 17.9 119.5 70.0 57.7 2.8 6.0 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.9 18.8 16.4 96.2 57.6 51.3 7.5 14.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.9 14.9 16.7 130.6 72.7 62.8 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------