***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 15.1 22.4 15.4 184.5 83.2 66.8 3.1 6.5 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 13.7 21.5 16.8 208.3 87.0 72.3 3.8 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.1 20.0 15.6 175.5 82.2 63.3 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 17.8 28.1 18.6 188.3 83.7 65.5 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 13.3 20.0 18.5 183.4 83.1 67.0 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.6 15.7 20.8 149.8 77.5 62.9 3.6 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 13.5 22.5 17.0 217.0 87.9 72.2 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 22.6 28.3 17.1 161.5 79.7 62.5 6.1 11.4 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 12.4 17.0 18.0 173.3 81.5 67.5 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 17.1 21.4 18.5 162.6 79.8 64.3 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 12.1 16.6 16.1 175.2 81.8 63.2 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 12.6 16.5 13.9 162.9 79.9 60.1 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 14.3 18.6 16.9 158.4 79.2 63.4 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 20.8 31.8 21.4 195.2 85.1 71.2 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 13.2 17.0 16.7 165.4 80.0 66.0 2.9 6.0 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 12.3 16.8 16.6 167.8 80.7 64.3 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 11.6 19.2 16.8 212.5 87.1 70.7 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 19.6 24.2 20.2 153.6 78.2 64.9 4.8 9.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 14.1 22.9 16.9 206.4 86.7 72.8 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 22.1 26.3 22.7 148.6 77.2 63.8 4.9 10.0 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 13.5 19.0 16.0 173.7 81.7 63.4 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 12.6 20.6 17.7 208.2 86.6 72.5 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 15.5 24.8 17.8 206.5 86.6 73.1 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 17.1 24.2 19.9 179.8 82.6 68.0 4.2 8.2 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 14.6 22.4 20.8 204.0 85.7 70.5 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.2 15.8 13.1 146.4 76.8 58.5 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 14.8 23.2 19.7 207.0 86.0 71.0 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 11.5 16.2 17.5 175.6 81.7 64.7 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 27.9 33.0 20.2 147.7 77.0 64.2 6.7 13.3 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 11.8 18.8 16.3 201.4 86.1 71.1 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------