***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.6 7.5 72.6 56.8 37.2 2.6 5.2 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.1 7.4 69.8 56.6 39.2 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.1 8.3 6.6 63.5 52.9 37.3 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 6.6 17.7 8.9 70.9 57.4 40.3 7.1 13.8 23.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.4 12.4 8.5 70.6 56.8 42.1 5.8 10.2 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.7 12.3 10.9 86.4 61.1 42.7 3.8 8.2 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.5 8.1 76.4 59.0 39.2 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.3 12.2 8.2 68.1 53.8 39.4 5.5 10.7 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 5.1 10.5 8.0 70.0 55.9 42.1 5.3 9.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.8 11.7 8.7 69.8 55.1 41.3 6.1 10.2 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.7 11.2 7.6 68.2 55.4 39.7 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.5 9.2 6.9 67.6 54.6 38.8 3.7 7.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.3 10.6 8.6 76.8 58.2 41.9 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.4 12.7 9.7 74.8 56.4 43.5 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.7 12.4 9.0 75.5 59.0 39.1 3.8 8.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.0 8.7 8.5 76.6 58.8 41.9 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.9 8.2 75.6 59.0 41.6 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 9.4 9.7 68.8 53.8 41.5 5.2 8.5 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.4 6.9 7.0 66.6 55.2 39.3 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.4 8.6 10.6 65.0 51.8 40.4 4.4 8.1 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.7 9.6 6.5 62.1 52.4 37.1 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.2 8.4 75.6 59.0 42.7 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.9 7.0 65.6 53.6 39.8 4.1 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.9 11.0 8.6 68.1 53.9 41.2 6.0 10.0 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.7 11.5 8.8 74.2 57.3 39.6 4.5 8.9 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.6 11.4 7.8 81.2 59.5 39.8 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.3 9.1 80.2 59.7 39.8 3.1 6.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 4.6 14.2 9.3 76.6 59.4 40.7 5.2 10.3 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.4 13.7 10.0 66.4 52.4 40.7 7.3 12.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.8 7.2 69.7 56.0 37.9 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------