***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.0 7.2 89.6 61.5 40.0 2.5 5.7 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.7 7.1 88.7 60.7 43.5 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.8 12.5 7.5 94.1 62.4 41.2 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.5 16.6 9.0 94.5 63.7 42.5 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.0 12.7 9.0 97.8 64.9 43.9 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.4 12.5 11.4 86.0 61.8 44.1 4.1 8.3 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.8 7.2 87.2 60.4 42.8 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.4 19.9 10.8 100.4 65.6 47.1 7.8 13.2 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.5 14.7 8.9 100.8 65.8 45.3 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.3 14.8 10.4 99.9 65.4 46.8 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.5 8.9 95.5 64.2 44.7 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.7 13.0 9.1 97.9 65.1 45.8 3.4 7.5 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.4 13.8 10.1 91.5 63.3 44.8 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.3 21.1 10.5 108.4 67.1 46.7 5.2 11.2 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.1 10.1 8.3 87.5 62.0 41.5 3.2 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.2 11.6 9.4 92.1 63.4 44.2 3.1 6.8 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.3 7.1 87.4 60.7 42.7 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 18.3 12.2 105.5 66.5 49.2 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.6 7.3 94.7 62.6 44.0 3.9 8.5 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.2 21.4 16.4 112.6 68.8 50.6 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.5 14.8 8.1 100.5 65.2 41.6 4.3 8.6 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.1 7.3 93.0 62.2 43.2 2.7 6.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.4 14.7 7.8 103.7 65.6 44.8 4.2 8.4 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.8 15.9 10.0 101.9 65.2 46.5 4.2 9.0 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.3 12.7 8.5 94.8 63.1 43.2 4.1 8.2 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.6 13.5 10.8 103.5 67.2 47.1 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.2 7.9 88.5 61.0 42.2 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.0 9.5 9.0 89.8 62.6 41.5 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.2 25.8 13.7 111.8 68.3 49.7 7.9 14.6 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.5 7.3 90.7 61.4 42.9 3.6 7.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------