***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 43.5 51.6 45.8 113.6 66.1 55.5 25.5 37.4 51.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 41.6 56.0 49.2 124.8 71.7 61.7 24.3 35.9 49.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 30.5 55.4 44.5 109.8 63.9 53.9 30.9 43.3 57.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 66.2 80.1 55.2 117.1 67.9 58.9 40.3 57.2 77.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 47.2 57.4 53.6 115.6 67.1 58.1 29.0 41.5 56.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 48.3 55.5 61.3 112.6 65.6 57.7 30.9 42.6 56.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 40.9 56.5 49.4 124.7 71.6 61.1 22.4 34.7 49.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 71.4 80.6 53.8 111.2 64.8 56.0 46.9 63.4 82.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 48.1 60.3 53.7 119.1 68.9 59.9 29.0 41.9 57.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 53.1 62.2 56.4 113.1 65.8 56.8 33.3 46.6 62.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 45.1 51.8 47.9 109.9 64.0 55.7 26.0 38.8 53.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 45.6 52.0 45.1 109.6 64.0 55.6 26.1 38.9 54.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 48.7 55.3 52.7 111.0 64.7 57.4 29.9 42.2 56.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 67.8 76.8 54.6 111.3 64.7 57.2 40.8 58.1 78.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 45.7 50.3 49.1 105.0 62.3 55.0 24.8 38.2 54.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 42.1 48.5 51.1 111.7 65.1 57.5 23.8 35.5 49.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 36.0 49.5 51.1 126.4 72.1 61.3 21.5 31.5 43.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 58.1 66.0 60.5 109.5 63.7 55.0 34.2 50.2 69.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 44.7 60.5 49.6 125.8 72.2 62.6 26.5 38.7 53.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 66.5 72.3 69.8 108.2 62.8 53.8 46.5 60.3 75.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 52.2 59.3 46.0 110.8 64.6 54.8 30.2 44.3 61.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 40.7 56.0 52.3 125.3 71.8 61.8 24.8 36.2 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 59.6 61.9 50.5 125.0 71.7 63.0 30.1 42.0 55.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 58.4 69.8 55.5 114.3 66.5 57.1 32.2 48.8 69.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 50.2 61.6 55.2 117.6 68.2 57.7 31.2 44.1 59.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 46.2 51.7 47.3 108.9 63.6 55.6 28.6 40.4 54.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 46.5 59.1 53.7 119.1 68.9 57.9 27.1 40.1 55.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 45.3 54.0 53.6 113.9 66.4 58.3 25.2 37.9 53.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 85.1 88.4 60.4 103.9 59.7 51.7 52.2 73.7 99.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 39.9 50.9 47.6 121.0 69.8 59.4 23.2 34.1 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------