***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 11.0 12.3 -0.5 41.8 42.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.3 11.7 -0.6 40.4 41.1 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.9 12.3 -0.3 44.2 44.5 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.2 10.5 -0.4 42.8 43.6 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.0 10.9 -0.3 44.7 45.2 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.2 9.2 -0.1 47.9 48.4 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.7 11.9 -0.6 40.3 41.0 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.8 9.0 -0.3 44.0 45.1 4.1 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.1 11.4 -0.1 47.6 47.5 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.7 9.8 -0.3 44.9 45.6 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.2 10.3 -0.4 42.2 43.6 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.1 9.8 -0.3 44.7 45.7 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.7 9.7 -0.3 43.8 45.1 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.1 10.8 -0.5 41.4 42.5 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.5 12.0 -0.3 45.4 45.7 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.1 10.3 -0.3 45.2 46.1 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.8 10.8 11.3 -0.6 39.5 40.3 10.4 11.4 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.4 8.7 -0.4 42.0 43.3 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.7 11.8 -0.5 41.7 42.2 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 5.6 6.9 -0.4 42.3 44.0 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.6 12.3 -0.3 45.5 45.6 9.9 10.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.3 9.8 11.4 -0.7 38.2 39.1 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.3 11.9 -0.4 43.8 44.0 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.5 10.6 -0.4 42.7 43.5 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 10.1 10.8 11.4 -0.6 40.6 41.7 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.0 9.7 -0.2 46.9 47.5 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.8 11.7 -0.6 41.4 42.2 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.7 11.3 -0.2 45.6 45.9 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.4 8.1 -0.3 43.1 44.4 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.9 12.1 -0.5 41.2 41.8 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------