***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 10.2 11.3 -0.7 37.6 40.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.4 9.9 11.1 -0.7 37.4 40.7 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 11.6 12.2 11.2 -0.6 39.0 41.5 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.4 9.2 -0.7 35.8 39.4 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.7 9.2 -0.7 36.1 39.3 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.0 7.6 -0.6 37.6 41.7 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 9.6 10.1 11.0 -0.8 36.4 39.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.7 7.7 -0.8 35.2 38.8 3.6 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 9.3 9.8 9.7 -0.7 37.2 39.9 9.5 10.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.2 9.6 8.2 -0.8 35.2 38.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.1 8.9 -0.6 37.7 40.8 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.7 8.1 8.5 -0.7 36.5 40.2 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 8.3 8.6 8.0 -0.7 35.7 39.9 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.3 9.7 -0.7 37.1 40.0 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.1 9.9 -0.5 40.0 42.9 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.0 8.6 -0.6 37.3 40.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.1 10.8 -0.7 37.5 40.9 9.8 10.7 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.3 7.5 -0.9 33.2 36.7 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.1 11.1 -0.6 38.8 41.6 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.6 4.7 6.1 -1.0 31.3 35.8 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.5 10.6 -0.7 38.0 40.4 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.1 10.8 -0.7 37.0 40.4 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.6 11.0 -0.5 40.0 42.4 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.6 9.4 -0.7 37.0 39.7 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.0 9.9 -0.7 37.5 40.6 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 8.5 8.8 8.2 -0.8 34.0 38.4 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.1 10.6 -0.7 37.5 40.6 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.3 9.5 -0.6 37.6 40.9 8.0 9.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.0 7.3 7.0 -0.9 32.5 36.3 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.2 11.2 -0.7 37.5 40.6 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------