***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 10.5 11.2 0.2 54.0 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.6 9.9 10.9 0.4 57.0 55.3 8.0 9.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.3 12.0 11.0 0.4 57.2 55.3 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.3 7.0 8.9 0.0 50.2 50.3 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 6.8 8.5 9.0 0.0 49.8 50.2 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.1 7.9 7.4 0.1 51.7 51.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.8 10.9 0.3 55.1 53.9 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.9 7.7 0.1 52.2 52.2 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 8.4 9.9 9.5 0.0 51.0 51.3 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.3 8.1 0.0 50.3 50.8 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.2 9.0 8.7 0.1 52.3 51.7 7.6 8.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.3 7.9 8.4 0.1 52.6 52.0 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.7 8.2 7.7 0.0 49.3 49.3 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.6 10.2 9.6 0.3 56.4 55.0 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.0 9.6 0.2 53.8 52.7 8.6 9.8 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 8.2 9.8 8.3 0.1 51.1 50.4 8.6 9.7 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.4 10.0 10.6 0.3 56.7 55.6 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.1 7.5 0.0 50.5 51.1 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.1 10.1 11.0 0.4 58.5 56.2 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.5 6.3 0.0 50.7 51.3 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.4 10.4 0.1 52.6 52.5 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.4 9.2 10.6 0.4 57.3 55.9 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.7 10.8 0.5 59.2 56.6 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.9 9.4 9.4 0.3 55.3 54.3 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.1 10.0 9.7 0.2 53.5 53.0 8.4 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.2 8.5 8.1 0.0 49.9 49.9 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 8.2 10.3 10.4 0.2 53.6 52.9 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.4 8.1 9.2 0.1 51.4 50.8 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.5 7.1 0.1 51.6 52.1 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.4 10.3 11.1 0.3 56.6 54.8 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------