***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 8.6 10.1 0.2 53.2 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.6 9.7 0.1 52.3 50.6 7.2 8.5 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.6 9.8 0.2 53.9 52.1 9.3 10.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.0 7.7 0.1 51.0 50.2 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.7 7.8 0.1 51.3 50.4 6.4 7.6 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.0 6.0 0.0 49.7 50.3 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.7 9.7 0.1 52.3 50.6 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.0 6.4 0.0 49.8 50.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.8 8.4 0.2 52.7 51.4 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.4 7.0 0.0 50.6 50.5 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.0 7.4 0.1 52.1 51.5 6.8 7.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.9 7.0 0.0 50.6 50.9 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.2 7.4 6.4 0.0 49.4 50.5 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 8.3 0.2 53.0 51.6 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.0 8.3 0.3 54.7 53.2 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.9 7.0 0.1 51.8 51.6 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.8 9.4 0.1 51.8 50.1 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.3 6.4 0.0 49.5 49.9 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.6 9.7 0.2 53.0 51.2 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.4 5.0 -0.2 46.8 47.8 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.1 9.3 0.2 53.0 51.5 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.4 7.8 9.3 0.1 51.2 49.8 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.2 9.5 0.2 54.0 52.0 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.0 8.2 0.2 52.8 51.7 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.7 8.5 0.2 52.5 51.1 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.4 7.6 6.7 -0.1 48.3 49.3 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.7 9.3 0.2 53.0 51.3 6.9 8.4 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 7.9 0.1 52.4 51.7 6.2 7.1 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.6 6.0 0.0 50.0 50.4 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.9 9.9 0.2 52.9 51.1 7.5 8.7 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------