***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 9.8 11.2 -0.2 44.8 45.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.6 10.9 -0.2 44.9 45.9 9.1 9.8 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.9 11.1 -0.1 47.7 48.0 11.4 12.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.2 9.1 -0.3 42.7 44.2 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.7 9.2 -0.2 43.5 44.9 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.0 7.6 -0.2 45.3 45.8 7.5 8.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.8 10.9 -0.2 43.9 45.1 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.9 7.7 -0.3 42.9 44.4 3.5 4.1 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.9 9.8 -0.2 45.8 46.8 9.4 10.1 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.4 8.3 -0.3 42.9 44.6 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.1 8.8 -0.2 44.4 45.5 8.6 9.3 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.0 8.4 -0.2 44.4 45.4 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.5 8.0 -0.3 42.2 43.7 8.1 8.8 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.1 9.6 -0.2 45.5 46.1 9.7 10.2 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.1 9.9 -0.1 47.7 48.2 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.9 8.5 -0.2 44.9 45.7 9.5 10.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 10.5 -0.2 44.3 45.5 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.2 7.6 -0.3 40.8 42.8 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.8 10.9 -0.1 46.7 47.2 9.3 10.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.5 6.1 -0.4 39.1 41.1 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.4 10.7 -0.2 45.9 46.8 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.9 10.5 -0.2 43.7 44.9 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.4 10.8 0.0 48.7 48.5 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.4 9.4 -0.2 45.4 46.3 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.8 9.9 -0.2 43.9 45.2 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.7 8.2 -0.3 42.4 43.6 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.9 10.5 -0.2 44.3 45.5 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.3 9.5 -0.2 45.4 46.3 7.9 8.5 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.5 7.0 -0.3 41.6 43.4 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.0 11.1 -0.2 45.3 46.2 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------