***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 21.9 21.1 -0.9 37.3 38.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 20.7 21.4 20.4 -1.2 32.4 34.5 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 21.1 22.3 21.2 -0.7 39.6 40.6 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 14.4 15.8 19.8 -0.4 44.0 44.2 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 21.8 23.3 20.5 -0.4 44.9 44.7 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 21.4 23.0 18.9 -0.2 47.9 47.4 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 20.4 21.0 20.3 -1.3 31.6 33.8 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 10.9 12.0 18.3 -0.9 38.4 39.9 11.6 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.4 23.0 21.2 -0.3 45.3 44.7 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 20.9 22.4 19.4 -0.6 41.4 42.0 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 21.8 23.3 20.4 -0.3 45.5 45.2 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.4 19.5 -0.6 42.7 43.2 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 22.4 24.0 20.1 -0.2 48.0 47.3 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 20.7 21.7 19.5 -1.1 34.4 36.5 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.6 21.6 -0.1 48.5 47.6 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.6 20.5 -0.1 49.0 48.0 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 19.8 20.3 19.7 -1.4 28.7 31.3 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 20.0 21.0 18.0 -1.1 35.1 37.4 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 20.6 21.5 20.6 -1.1 34.6 36.2 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 16.4 17.0 15.8 -1.5 29.8 33.5 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 21.3 22.6 21.5 -0.6 41.2 41.8 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 20.2 20.7 19.5 -1.6 27.3 30.1 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.9 20.7 -0.9 37.6 38.7 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.9 19.7 -0.9 36.8 38.6 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 20.9 21.9 20.0 -0.9 37.0 38.8 21.6 23.0 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.6 19.4 -0.4 44.6 44.8 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.7 20.3 -1.0 35.2 37.3 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.2 23.7 20.9 -0.1 48.2 47.4 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 15.5 16.3 17.0 -1.3 31.9 35.1 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 20.6 21.5 20.8 -1.1 34.8 36.6 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------