***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 21.6 20.3 -1.0 36.0 40.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.0 21.8 20.3 -0.8 38.5 41.7 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 21.0 21.9 20.5 -0.8 38.2 42.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 13.8 14.3 18.7 -1.2 33.1 38.3 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 21.3 21.9 18.9 -1.2 33.9 39.3 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 20.2 20.7 17.1 -1.4 31.4 37.5 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.6 21.4 20.1 -0.9 37.4 40.8 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 10.0 10.7 17.6 -1.1 33.7 39.8 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 20.9 21.7 19.4 -1.0 35.9 41.0 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 20.3 21.1 18.3 -1.1 34.9 40.5 20.9 22.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 20.8 21.7 18.7 -1.0 35.5 40.9 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 20.1 21.0 18.5 -1.1 34.5 40.4 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 21.1 21.7 18.0 -1.2 32.9 39.1 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 20.8 21.8 19.3 -0.8 38.2 42.7 21.3 22.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.1 19.2 -0.9 37.4 41.2 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 21.8 22.5 18.4 -1.1 34.2 40.0 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 20.3 21.2 19.9 -0.8 38.7 41.7 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 19.7 20.5 17.6 -1.1 34.4 40.3 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 20.7 21.7 20.5 -0.7 39.5 42.7 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 15.7 16.1 15.4 -1.3 31.1 38.3 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 20.9 21.7 20.0 -1.0 36.0 40.8 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 20.8 21.8 20.0 -0.8 38.9 42.0 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 20.9 21.9 20.5 -0.7 40.5 43.8 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 20.6 21.6 19.2 -0.9 37.5 42.2 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 20.8 21.3 18.8 -1.1 34.4 39.1 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 20.8 21.3 17.9 -1.3 31.5 38.1 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 20.7 21.3 19.4 -1.0 35.1 39.3 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 21.2 21.9 19.0 -1.1 34.7 39.5 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 14.9 15.6 16.7 -1.2 33.4 39.8 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 20.7 21.6 20.4 -0.8 38.0 41.4 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------