***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 22.1 20.2 0.7 59.9 56.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 20.3 22.3 20.1 0.8 61.1 56.9 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 20.0 22.4 20.4 0.9 61.6 57.2 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 12.2 14.8 18.6 0.4 56.0 52.8 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 19.9 22.2 18.9 0.6 57.8 54.4 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 18.9 21.2 17.4 0.4 55.7 52.2 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.8 19.9 0.7 60.5 56.6 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.8 17.8 0.5 57.5 54.7 9.9 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 19.9 22.3 19.4 0.7 59.7 55.9 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 19.7 21.9 18.4 0.6 58.6 55.4 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 20.0 22.4 18.8 0.7 59.3 55.4 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.3 21.7 18.7 0.6 58.3 55.0 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 20.4 22.6 18.3 0.6 57.9 54.3 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 20.7 22.8 19.2 0.8 59.9 56.4 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 19.3 21.7 18.9 0.5 57.5 53.4 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 20.7 23.1 18.6 0.6 58.3 54.5 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 19.6 21.5 19.7 0.8 60.8 56.8 19.8 20.8 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.3 21.5 17.8 0.6 57.9 55.3 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 20.0 22.1 20.3 0.9 61.8 57.4 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 15.9 17.8 15.8 0.4 55.6 54.0 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 19.9 22.2 20.0 0.8 60.0 56.2 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 20.4 22.2 19.7 0.7 60.2 56.6 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 22.9 22.4 20.4 0.9 62.4 57.8 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 20.2 22.4 19.2 0.8 60.2 56.6 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 19.3 21.6 18.8 0.6 58.7 55.0 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 19.9 22.1 18.2 0.4 55.5 52.9 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 19.7 21.9 19.4 0.7 59.2 55.6 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 19.2 21.8 18.9 0.5 56.4 52.8 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 15.1 17.2 16.9 0.5 56.9 54.9 15.4 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 20.0 22.0 20.3 0.8 61.0 56.8 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------