***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 21.0 18.9 0.5 56.4 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 20.7 20.6 18.7 0.5 56.1 52.7 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 20.8 20.8 19.1 0.6 57.4 53.5 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.9 17.5 0.6 57.1 53.2 11.7 13.2 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 20.8 20.8 17.7 0.5 56.0 52.5 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 20.4 20.3 16.3 0.5 55.7 52.7 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 20.4 20.1 18.5 0.4 55.0 51.9 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.0 16.4 0.3 53.5 50.7 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.8 20.8 18.1 0.5 56.0 52.4 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.3 17.0 0.4 54.2 51.1 18.6 19.9 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 20.9 20.9 17.5 0.6 56.4 52.7 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 20.5 20.4 17.2 0.4 54.9 51.8 18.6 20.0 21.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 21.3 21.2 16.9 0.4 55.0 52.2 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 18.9 21.0 17.9 0.4 54.8 51.7 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 20.1 20.3 17.9 0.8 60.0 55.4 18.3 19.6 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 21.7 21.7 17.3 0.6 56.6 53.1 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 20.1 19.9 18.2 0.4 54.9 51.8 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.3 16.4 0.2 52.1 49.7 17.9 19.2 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 18.4 20.6 18.9 0.6 57.0 53.2 18.7 20.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.4 14.3 0.0 50.2 48.7 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.7 18.7 0.6 56.8 53.1 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 18.7 20.6 18.3 0.4 54.9 51.9 18.9 20.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 18.9 20.9 19.0 0.6 57.5 53.6 19.1 20.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 20.9 20.7 17.8 0.4 54.7 51.5 18.9 20.3 21.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 20.1 20.1 17.6 0.5 56.5 53.0 18.5 19.7 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 21.0 20.9 16.7 0.3 53.5 51.3 19.4 20.6 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 20.5 20.4 18.1 0.4 55.6 52.4 18.7 20.0 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.5 17.8 0.7 58.3 54.1 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.5 15.5 0.1 50.9 49.1 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 20.4 20.3 18.9 0.5 56.4 52.9 18.5 19.9 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------