***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 21.7 20.1 -0.2 46.8 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 22.2 21.7 19.9 -0.2 46.3 46.7 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 21.1 22.0 20.3 0.0 49.6 49.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.8 18.6 -0.2 47.0 47.5 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 21.3 22.2 19.0 -0.1 47.9 48.3 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.4 17.4 -0.2 47.0 47.1 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 21.9 21.3 19.7 -0.3 44.9 45.7 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.5 17.5 -0.3 44.1 45.4 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.1 19.5 0.0 49.5 49.4 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 20.7 21.6 18.3 -0.2 46.4 47.2 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.2 22.2 18.9 0.0 49.4 49.4 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 20.5 21.5 18.5 -0.2 46.9 47.6 20.7 21.6 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.5 18.3 -0.1 48.2 48.3 21.7 22.6 23.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.0 19.0 -0.2 46.1 46.9 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.0 19.4 0.1 51.6 50.8 21.1 21.9 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.0 18.7 0.0 49.9 49.7 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 20.2 20.9 19.4 -0.3 44.3 45.3 20.4 21.2 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 20.1 20.7 17.4 -0.4 42.8 44.5 20.2 21.1 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.6 20.1 -0.1 48.1 48.2 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.6 17.0 15.3 -0.6 37.7 40.6 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.1 22.0 20.0 -0.1 48.5 48.6 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 20.9 21.6 19.4 -0.3 43.6 44.8 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 22.3 22.0 20.2 0.0 50.1 49.7 21.1 22.0 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.9 21.8 19.0 -0.2 46.7 47.4 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 20.7 21.4 18.8 -0.2 45.7 46.4 20.8 21.5 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.1 18.1 -0.3 44.9 45.9 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.8 21.5 19.3 -0.2 45.1 45.8 20.9 21.7 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 21.0 22.0 19.1 0.0 49.6 49.4 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 15.8 16.3 16.5 -0.5 40.3 42.7 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.5 20.1 -0.1 47.1 47.3 20.8 21.6 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------