***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 16.6 18.1 123.0 70.8 59.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.9 14.3 19.3 130.7 72.9 61.1 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.4 13.5 17.0 117.5 69.0 58.3 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.1 14.4 17.5 115.4 68.8 57.8 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.6 11.2 16.4 113.0 68.2 59.3 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.2 12.2 19.2 121.5 70.8 59.7 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 13.8 15.9 19.8 135.2 74.1 62.2 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.4 18.3 15.8 102.9 64.5 57.0 5.3 10.9 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 9.4 12.7 15.2 105.1 65.5 56.8 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.0 11.9 15.7 98.5 62.9 55.4 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.9 11.8 14.9 111.1 67.7 58.9 2.8 6.0 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.3 11.4 14.5 111.2 67.7 58.0 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.7 12.9 17.5 118.6 69.8 58.9 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.7 16.6 18.6 110.4 65.8 56.0 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.8 11.7 16.8 112.9 68.4 56.6 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.0 10.5 16.4 117.7 69.7 59.4 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 12.7 15.2 21.3 143.6 76.2 64.6 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.8 12.5 16.9 96.7 61.5 54.2 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.6 13.7 18.5 125.5 71.4 59.7 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 11.9 17.7 22.6 114.6 67.7 61.6 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 10.3 14.7 15.6 109.4 66.8 57.0 3.2 7.6 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.6 15.5 21.0 134.5 73.9 64.1 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.1 13.5 17.9 120.2 69.6 57.8 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.6 14.2 16.3 101.8 63.2 54.4 3.7 8.4 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.2 15.5 20.7 132.3 73.3 62.5 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.0 13.3 18.8 133.7 73.8 62.1 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.9 16.1 21.3 134.1 73.8 62.7 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.9 11.2 16.4 112.1 68.1 56.8 2.6 5.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 15.8 19.8 18.9 103.9 63.8 56.3 6.0 12.2 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.9 13.0 18.8 126.1 71.6 60.1 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------