***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 11.0 13.7 148.0 77.1 53.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 12.5 12.3 122.9 70.9 51.7 3.7 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.8 18.7 13.8 143.0 76.0 52.3 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.7 30.6 16.5 163.2 79.9 56.3 5.4 10.9 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.9 23.2 17.0 171.9 81.4 57.1 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 15.9 21.4 20.2 162.4 79.7 58.6 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.1 12.8 124.1 71.3 52.6 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.0 26.5 17.2 151.2 77.5 55.7 6.6 11.8 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.1 20.7 17.0 173.1 81.8 56.0 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.5 23.9 17.9 158.5 79.2 55.6 5.3 9.8 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.4 20.5 16.0 172.0 81.4 57.4 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.0 19.4 15.5 166.4 80.4 56.1 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 15.2 20.9 18.1 166.6 80.5 57.7 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.0 20.9 15.6 127.4 72.0 52.3 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 20.2 14.7 148.8 77.2 55.6 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.0 18.8 17.1 174.9 81.9 57.8 3.6 6.8 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.6 12.3 117.8 69.6 51.0 3.2 5.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.1 23.2 18.7 140.0 75.3 53.6 4.7 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 13.2 12.3 125.5 71.5 51.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 22.5 20.4 125.6 71.5 53.5 5.3 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.4 22.5 15.1 170.1 81.4 55.2 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.4 10.8 12.0 114.7 68.4 50.9 3.5 6.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.9 12.8 130.3 72.8 51.7 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.1 20.7 16.6 140.3 75.4 53.2 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 18.2 22.9 16.1 156.6 78.8 56.6 5.2 9.5 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.4 18.5 15.7 157.9 79.0 56.2 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 17.4 20.5 15.1 145.3 76.5 55.1 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.0 19.2 16.2 164.3 80.0 56.5 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.8 31.7 19.1 131.1 73.0 53.0 8.0 15.2 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.0 12.7 128.8 72.4 52.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------