***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 6.2 9.2 69.6 52.8 34.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.2 9.1 64.9 48.5 36.1 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.6 8.8 65.9 50.5 35.5 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 6.4 14.5 9.9 72.6 53.9 36.2 7.0 12.8 20.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 4.0 9.4 9.5 71.1 53.6 36.6 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.0 9.0 12.7 83.4 57.2 40.0 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.8 5.1 8.9 62.9 47.7 34.8 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 4.6 12.5 11.5 83.2 57.2 40.1 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.8 8.5 9.8 70.8 53.0 35.9 4.4 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.3 9.8 11.1 76.1 54.3 38.0 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.6 9.4 9.1 75.0 55.1 37.3 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.8 9.4 10.0 88.4 60.1 40.0 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.8 9.0 11.4 87.1 59.4 40.2 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.1 11.6 11.9 72.2 52.8 41.4 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.1 9.9 10.1 78.5 58.1 37.0 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.4 7.1 10.0 79.2 56.4 38.2 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.0 9.5 70.5 51.3 37.4 2.3 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.2 8.6 13.2 77.0 53.5 39.3 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.7 5.6 9.1 66.7 50.0 37.5 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.6 9.9 16.2 77.7 53.9 41.2 4.7 8.6 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.8 7.9 9.0 68.0 52.4 34.9 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.3 5.9 10.1 75.2 53.3 40.1 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.4 7.5 9.3 67.7 51.0 38.6 3.8 7.1 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.9 9.5 11.2 71.9 52.2 38.7 5.3 8.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.4 8.0 10.1 69.1 52.6 36.2 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.5 10.7 11.4 96.5 63.1 42.2 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.3 5.6 10.1 69.6 52.9 36.2 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.6 11.7 10.0 76.9 56.0 36.8 4.8 9.5 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.4 12.8 14.6 76.8 53.5 40.6 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.9 8.9 64.3 48.8 35.5 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------