***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 10.4 7.7 81.7 59.5 39.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.7 8.5 91.4 62.0 44.0 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.2 7.8 81.0 59.0 41.2 3.6 8.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.1 14.0 9.4 76.2 59.3 39.0 5.3 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.4 9.3 81.8 60.4 40.4 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.8 13.7 11.7 84.4 61.5 40.3 4.4 9.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.9 8.9 94.6 63.4 45.7 2.9 6.0 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.2 16.7 9.8 76.7 57.1 39.5 7.7 13.6 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.2 8.9 82.9 60.0 40.4 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.7 10.9 9.6 80.0 58.5 41.3 3.3 7.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.9 9.2 8.9 79.6 59.4 39.4 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.2 10.0 8.7 77.3 58.0 37.6 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.3 13.4 10.0 81.3 60.6 38.3 4.3 9.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.2 12.4 9.2 76.1 56.4 42.1 4.1 9.3 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.5 7.6 8.5 66.1 56.5 35.2 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.1 9.9 9.5 78.3 59.2 37.7 3.0 6.9 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.9 8.5 92.8 62.3 45.2 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 12.3 10.0 76.4 56.2 42.3 4.4 9.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 11.3 8.2 87.2 60.7 42.9 3.4 7.5 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.5 12.7 12.6 72.7 55.3 41.5 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.4 12.2 8.1 80.3 59.5 39.3 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.7 8.7 94.2 62.5 45.9 2.7 5.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.5 7.8 79.5 58.7 42.1 2.9 6.7 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.9 11.1 8.8 77.0 57.0 42.4 3.3 8.2 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.6 11.5 9.0 81.0 60.2 40.5 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.6 12.6 9.4 83.7 61.0 38.3 4.6 8.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.8 9.6 8.8 84.8 60.8 41.6 2.8 6.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.3 7.1 9.4 72.6 58.3 36.9 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.5 15.5 10.7 72.6 54.8 41.4 6.2 13.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.0 8.4 89.1 61.6 43.5 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------