***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 42.4 48.7 104.4 61.4 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 40.8 41.7 49.3 102.3 59.7 52.6 22.8 34.1 47.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 49.1 49.3 47.4 100.6 59.0 50.7 29.7 41.9 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 40.0 70.3 53.3 104.1 61.0 51.1 40.1 57.2 77.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.8 52.0 52.3 106.1 62.0 51.1 29.5 41.9 56.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 31.6 57.4 63.8 111.3 64.9 55.3 32.0 44.4 58.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 21.6 42.5 50.5 103.8 60.7 53.4 21.3 33.1 47.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 46.3 73.3 54.4 101.7 58.8 49.9 46.5 63.4 82.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.9 51.1 50.9 104.2 60.8 49.9 29.0 41.6 56.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 32.0 54.6 54.3 100.8 58.3 48.7 33.2 47.1 62.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 25.5 49.3 48.9 106.1 62.0 50.6 25.8 38.4 53.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.0 51.0 48.8 108.3 63.2 52.5 25.7 38.6 53.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 29.5 56.7 57.0 111.8 65.2 54.6 30.1 42.9 57.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 39.8 62.5 55.3 95.9 54.8 49.1 39.4 56.9 77.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 25.4 47.3 50.1 99.3 59.2 49.9 25.0 38.5 55.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.6 46.7 53.0 109.4 63.9 52.4 23.5 35.0 48.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 34.8 38.0 51.6 107.6 62.8 55.5 19.2 29.0 40.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 33.2 55.2 58.9 96.2 54.7 47.1 34.5 50.1 69.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 43.9 44.3 48.1 101.0 59.0 52.0 24.6 36.7 51.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 44.1 63.1 71.8 96.7 55.0 49.1 44.4 58.5 74.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 30.8 54.3 47.8 102.8 60.5 50.4 30.6 44.4 60.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 23.6 43.4 51.9 106.2 61.8 55.0 23.3 34.3 47.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 46.5 46.4 47.8 99.1 57.9 51.0 28.2 40.3 54.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 32.2 54.6 52.8 96.5 55.5 48.1 32.1 48.5 68.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 51.5 56.5 55.9 108.2 63.4 54.5 31.0 44.0 59.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 47.7 57.2 55.3 117.6 68.1 58.0 28.9 40.9 54.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 45.9 50.5 55.2 108.1 63.3 54.8 26.4 38.7 53.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 25.2 47.6 52.0 103.0 60.6 50.1 25.2 38.0 53.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 49.7 77.4 63.3 95.1 53.8 47.5 51.1 72.5 97.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 39.4 39.7 48.8 101.6 59.3 52.0 21.9 32.8 45.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------