***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 23.1 23.3 22.6 0.8 58.7 56.8 21.1 22.5 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 21.1 22.8 22.0 0.0 50.1 50.4 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.4 22.7 0.4 54.6 54.0 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 17.7 18.2 21.2 2.2 74.7 68.7 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.4 21.6 1.0 61.1 59.0 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 24.1 24.1 20.4 1.7 69.0 64.8 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 20.7 22.4 21.8 0.0 50.3 50.7 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 13.8 13.2 20.3 1.1 61.4 59.6 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.9 22.1 0.9 59.7 58.0 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 24.4 23.8 21.0 1.2 62.3 60.0 20.9 22.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.8 21.8 0.8 58.2 57.0 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.1 23.4 21.4 1.0 61.0 59.3 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 25.1 24.3 21.5 1.0 61.0 59.3 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 21.0 23.2 21.4 0.3 53.3 53.2 21.3 22.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.9 22.9 2.0 72.2 67.0 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 25.6 25.0 21.6 1.1 62.2 60.1 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 20.5 22.0 21.5 0.0 49.8 50.2 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.9 20.2 1.0 60.2 58.5 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 20.8 22.6 22.2 0.0 50.1 50.4 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 19.6 18.7 18.2 0.8 58.9 58.0 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.8 22.6 0.8 59.1 57.4 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 21.0 22.8 21.6 0.0 50.2 50.5 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.9 22.7 22.3 -0.1 49.2 49.8 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 23.4 23.4 21.7 0.7 57.3 56.2 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.1 23.6 21.6 1.1 63.0 59.9 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 24.7 24.0 20.9 1.1 61.8 60.1 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.1 23.3 22.0 0.9 60.4 58.0 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.4 22.0 2.1 73.3 67.9 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 19.1 18.0 19.4 0.7 57.7 56.8 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.7 22.1 0.1 51.1 51.2 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------