***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.6 21.4 0.6 56.8 55.3 19.9 21.1 22.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.6 20.8 0.1 50.8 50.8 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.8 21.5 0.3 53.6 53.0 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 16.0 15.9 20.1 1.5 66.8 62.7 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 22.2 22.2 20.3 0.7 58.1 56.5 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 21.3 21.8 19.0 1.2 62.6 59.6 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.3 20.8 0.1 51.7 51.5 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.7 11.7 19.2 0.6 56.2 55.2 9.9 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.1 20.6 0.7 57.2 55.9 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 21.8 21.8 19.8 0.7 58.0 56.3 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.1 22.2 20.4 0.6 56.7 55.5 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.5 20.3 0.6 56.3 55.2 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.6 19.7 0.7 57.9 56.1 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.2 19.9 0.1 50.9 51.2 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 21.6 22.5 20.9 1.5 66.7 62.6 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.0 23.2 20.3 0.9 60.1 57.8 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 19.6 20.9 20.5 0.1 50.8 50.6 19.8 20.8 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.4 19.2 0.6 56.5 55.4 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.3 21.0 0.0 50.3 50.5 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 15.9 17.7 16.9 0.3 53.4 53.4 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 22.0 22.0 21.2 0.6 56.8 55.5 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 20.2 21.6 20.5 0.1 50.6 50.6 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.5 21.1 -0.1 49.2 49.8 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.0 20.3 0.4 54.7 54.0 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.8 20.2 1.0 61.4 58.6 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 20.1 22.1 19.6 0.6 56.1 54.8 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.9 20.8 0.8 59.2 57.0 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 21.8 22.8 20.5 1.5 66.7 62.7 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.2 17.0 18.3 0.3 53.7 53.6 15.4 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.4 21.0 0.1 51.7 51.5 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------