***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 21.8 21.3 20.6 1.3 65.4 61.4 18.6 20.0 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 18.5 20.8 20.1 0.7 58.3 56.5 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 21.9 21.3 20.9 1.1 63.1 60.0 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 15.4 15.8 19.4 2.4 76.4 70.3 11.7 13.2 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 22.2 21.9 19.7 1.7 69.0 64.7 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 21.7 22.1 18.8 2.5 75.9 70.6 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 18.1 20.4 20.0 0.7 58.8 56.6 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 12.4 12.1 18.6 1.6 67.6 63.7 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 22.1 21.8 20.0 1.6 67.9 63.7 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 21.6 21.3 19.2 1.7 68.2 63.9 18.6 19.9 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 22.2 21.9 19.8 1.6 67.6 63.8 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 21.9 21.6 19.6 1.7 68.4 64.4 18.6 20.0 21.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 22.6 22.5 19.3 2.0 70.7 66.2 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 22.3 21.4 19.2 0.9 59.8 58.2 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 21.4 21.8 20.1 2.4 77.3 71.6 18.3 19.6 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 23.1 23.0 19.8 2.0 71.4 66.7 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 17.8 20.1 19.7 0.6 57.8 55.8 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 20.8 20.3 18.6 1.5 66.0 62.5 17.9 19.2 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 18.4 20.7 20.3 0.7 58.2 56.6 18.7 20.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 17.9 17.5 16.2 1.2 64.0 61.3 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 21.8 21.6 20.6 1.5 67.6 63.3 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 18.5 20.8 19.6 0.6 57.3 55.7 18.9 20.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 22.0 21.0 20.5 0.7 57.7 56.6 19.1 20.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 22.1 21.5 19.6 1.3 64.0 61.0 18.9 20.3 21.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 21.1 21.1 19.5 1.8 71.0 65.7 18.5 19.7 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 22.2 22.1 19.1 1.9 70.5 66.3 19.4 20.6 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 21.6 21.3 20.1 1.4 67.3 62.7 18.7 20.0 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 21.8 22.3 19.9 2.5 77.0 71.0 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 17.1 16.5 17.6 1.2 63.4 60.9 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 21.4 20.6 20.2 0.8 59.6 57.4 18.5 19.9 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------