***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 21.8 21.6 21.4 0.1 51.7 51.4 20.7 21.5 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.5 20.8 -0.5 41.4 43.3 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.8 21.5 -0.2 46.0 47.0 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.2 20.1 1.4 73.0 68.6 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.5 20.4 0.3 55.0 54.0 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 21.8 22.4 19.3 1.0 66.8 63.1 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.1 20.7 -0.5 41.7 43.6 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.0 19.1 0.3 54.3 53.2 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.3 20.9 0.2 53.6 53.0 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.1 19.7 0.4 55.8 54.5 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.2 20.5 0.1 50.9 50.7 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 22.0 21.9 20.2 0.3 54.3 53.1 20.7 21.6 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 22.9 22.9 20.2 0.3 55.3 53.8 21.7 22.6 23.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.6 21.9 20.1 -0.3 44.2 45.6 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 22.8 22.9 21.6 1.3 70.9 67.3 21.1 21.9 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.4 20.4 0.5 57.6 55.8 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.8 20.4 -0.5 41.4 43.2 20.4 21.2 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.2 19.0 0.2 52.9 52.3 20.2 21.1 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.3 21.0 -0.5 41.2 43.1 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.7 17.6 16.9 0.0 49.5 49.7 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.1 21.4 0.2 52.6 52.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.2 21.5 20.5 -0.4 41.8 43.5 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.5 21.1 -0.6 40.2 42.3 21.1 22.0 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.9 20.4 0.0 49.2 49.5 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 21.8 21.9 20.3 0.5 58.0 56.4 20.8 21.5 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 22.7 22.7 19.7 0.4 56.1 54.3 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.9 20.8 0.2 54.2 53.3 20.9 21.7 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 23.1 23.3 20.8 1.4 72.1 68.0 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.8 18.1 -0.1 48.8 49.2 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.3 21.0 -0.5 42.3 44.0 20.8 21.6 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------