***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 11.5 13.2 1.7 86.6 78.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.6 11.2 12.3 1.3 80.1 73.0 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 12.6 13.3 12.7 1.5 84.6 77.1 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 8.1 8.8 10.8 1.4 86.0 78.7 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 10.0 10.7 10.8 1.4 84.9 78.2 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 9.0 9.8 9.2 1.6 88.9 81.2 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 10.6 11.1 12.5 1.4 82.0 74.8 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 4.7 5.3 9.2 1.3 84.2 77.3 3.4 4.0 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 10.8 11.5 11.4 1.5 86.1 79.4 9.2 9.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 10.4 10.9 9.8 1.3 83.4 77.0 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 10.0 10.7 10.4 1.4 85.6 78.8 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 8.9 9.6 10.0 1.4 86.0 78.7 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 9.5 10.2 9.6 1.4 85.6 78.0 7.9 8.6 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 10.7 11.1 10.9 1.2 80.1 73.4 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 10.9 11.8 11.7 1.7 90.6 82.6 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 10.9 11.7 10.1 1.5 87.0 79.5 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 10.6 10.9 11.8 1.1 76.6 70.1 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 9.4 9.9 9.0 1.2 81.6 75.2 7.7 8.5 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 10.5 11.0 12.3 1.3 80.9 73.8 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 5.6 6.1 7.6 1.2 81.1 73.8 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 10.4 11.2 12.3 1.6 85.7 78.4 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.9 11.7 1.0 75.0 69.4 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 10.2 10.8 12.2 1.4 82.9 75.6 8.7 9.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 10.0 10.5 10.8 1.3 83.0 75.9 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 11.1 12.0 11.8 1.6 86.6 79.1 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 9.6 10.1 9.6 1.3 83.5 76.3 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 11.4 12.4 12.4 1.7 86.3 78.7 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 9.2 10.1 11.1 1.5 88.1 80.1 7.7 8.3 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 8.5 8.9 8.4 1.2 81.3 74.6 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.6 12.7 1.4 82.6 75.3 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------