***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 12.9 15.2 2.1 79.8 76.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 11.9 12.0 13.8 1.2 68.7 66.0 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 14.3 14.6 14.6 1.7 76.2 72.9 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 9.8 10.4 12.6 1.7 79.6 75.9 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 11.5 11.9 12.8 1.6 77.0 73.7 9.0 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 10.5 11.0 10.9 1.7 80.1 76.7 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.4 14.3 1.6 74.0 71.0 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 6.3 6.5 10.6 1.3 72.5 69.9 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 12.3 12.7 13.4 1.7 78.5 75.2 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.1 11.5 1.3 73.1 70.3 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 11.5 11.8 12.3 1.5 76.2 73.1 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 10.4 10.7 11.4 1.4 75.6 72.6 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 11.2 11.5 11.4 1.5 76.4 73.4 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.2 12.4 1.0 67.6 65.0 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 12.7 13.3 14.3 2.1 83.8 80.3 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 12.4 12.8 12.1 1.7 78.6 75.4 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 11.5 12.0 13.0 0.9 64.0 61.5 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 10.9 10.9 10.3 1.0 69.0 66.6 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.2 13.9 1.2 69.4 66.5 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 7.0 6.9 8.3 0.8 65.6 63.7 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 12.0 12.4 14.4 1.7 77.8 74.3 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 10.5 10.9 13.0 0.7 62.0 59.9 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 11.7 12.0 13.9 1.4 72.5 69.1 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.9 12.4 1.2 71.8 68.8 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.1 14.1 1.9 79.0 75.4 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 11.1 11.2 11.0 1.2 71.2 69.0 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 13.0 13.5 14.6 2.0 78.9 75.5 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 10.9 11.5 13.2 1.8 81.1 77.5 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 9.9 9.9 9.6 1.0 68.9 66.4 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 12.5 12.7 14.5 1.6 73.6 70.6 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------