***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 11.8 14.0 1.8 76.8 70.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.9 13.2 1.3 71.7 66.1 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.0 13.5 1.5 74.0 68.5 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 9.6 9.9 11.6 1.4 74.4 68.5 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 10.7 11.1 11.6 1.5 75.0 69.5 8.2 9.3 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 9.7 10.3 10.2 1.7 79.9 73.0 7.6 8.6 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 11.7 12.0 13.3 1.4 73.7 67.6 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 5.5 5.7 10.1 1.5 75.5 70.3 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 11.4 11.8 12.2 1.6 76.4 70.7 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 11.1 11.3 10.6 1.5 74.7 69.5 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 10.9 11.2 11.2 1.6 76.5 70.8 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 9.8 10.1 10.9 1.6 76.5 70.9 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 10.4 10.7 10.4 1.6 76.8 70.7 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 11.6 11.8 11.6 1.3 72.0 66.7 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 11.6 12.1 12.3 1.6 78.0 70.5 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 11.7 12.1 10.9 1.6 77.3 71.0 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 10.8 11.6 12.7 1.2 70.1 64.4 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.3 9.9 1.4 73.9 68.7 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.7 13.1 1.3 71.5 66.2 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 6.2 6.5 8.8 1.6 76.4 70.7 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.6 13.1 1.6 75.5 69.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.6 12.5 1.1 68.4 63.2 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.3 13.0 1.3 72.2 66.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 10.9 11.1 11.6 1.4 73.5 68.2 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 11.9 12.4 12.5 1.7 76.6 70.4 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 10.4 10.6 10.7 1.5 75.8 69.8 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 12.4 13.1 13.3 1.8 77.6 71.1 9.4 10.8 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 10.1 10.6 11.9 1.5 76.3 69.5 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 9.4 9.7 9.4 1.4 74.4 69.2 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 11.9 12.2 13.5 1.4 73.3 67.6 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------