***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 11.6 13.0 2.1 80.8 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 11.1 11.8 12.4 1.8 78.3 69.9 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 13.0 13.7 12.6 2.0 81.3 72.7 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 8.6 9.5 10.6 1.8 82.5 74.1 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 10.4 11.3 10.6 1.8 81.4 73.3 7.3 8.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 9.5 10.8 9.1 2.0 85.2 76.6 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.4 12.3 1.7 77.3 69.1 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 5.2 6.0 9.3 1.8 82.3 74.1 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 11.3 12.1 11.1 1.9 81.3 73.5 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 10.7 11.3 9.7 1.8 80.4 72.8 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 10.4 11.4 10.2 1.8 82.6 74.0 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 9.2 10.2 10.0 1.9 83.8 75.2 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 9.8 10.9 9.4 1.9 83.0 74.4 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 10.9 11.6 10.9 1.8 80.3 72.4 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 11.3 12.6 11.3 2.1 85.9 76.7 8.5 9.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 11.2 12.3 9.9 1.9 83.6 74.9 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.8 11.2 11.9 1.6 75.7 68.1 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 9.5 10.3 9.1 1.8 80.4 73.0 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 10.9 11.6 12.4 1.9 79.8 71.3 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 6.0 6.8 7.9 1.8 80.5 72.6 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 10.8 11.6 12.1 2.0 81.2 73.1 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.4 11.8 1.6 75.7 68.4 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 10.6 11.4 12.3 2.0 81.7 73.1 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 10.2 10.9 10.9 1.9 81.6 73.7 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 11.6 12.5 11.5 2.0 82.2 73.3 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 9.8 10.7 9.5 1.7 81.9 73.2 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 12.0 13.0 12.1 2.0 80.6 71.6 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 9.7 10.8 10.9 1.9 84.0 75.2 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 8.7 9.4 8.6 1.7 80.5 72.7 6.5 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 11.4 12.1 12.6 1.9 79.2 70.6 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------