***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 9.1 10.5 1.0 66.9 60.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.4 9.0 9.9 0.8 64.1 57.7 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.0 10.1 0.9 66.1 59.7 9.0 10.1 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.5 8.2 0.8 65.8 61.4 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.3 8.2 0.8 64.7 60.4 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 7.8 7.6 6.7 0.9 66.5 62.9 5.7 6.6 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.5 9.1 9.9 0.8 64.8 58.1 7.0 8.1 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.1 3.4 6.9 0.7 63.3 60.6 1.7 2.7 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.2 8.8 0.8 65.7 60.5 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.8 7.4 0.7 63.5 59.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 8.6 8.4 8.0 0.8 65.3 61.6 6.6 7.5 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.3 7.6 0.8 64.6 61.4 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 8.2 7.8 7.1 0.7 63.3 60.4 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.1 8.5 0.6 62.0 57.5 7.5 8.5 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 9.2 9.3 8.9 1.1 71.6 65.1 7.7 8.4 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 9.5 9.3 7.6 0.8 65.5 62.0 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.9 9.5 0.6 61.8 56.0 7.3 8.3 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.4 7.7 6.7 0.6 61.4 58.3 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.4 9.0 9.9 0.8 64.4 58.1 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.8 5.3 0.5 58.3 57.1 2.4 3.4 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.7 9.7 0.9 65.9 60.1 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.0 9.4 0.6 60.6 55.6 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.6 9.8 0.8 65.1 58.8 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.3 8.4 0.8 63.9 58.9 6.6 7.6 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.4 9.0 0.9 66.2 60.7 7.0 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.1 7.4 0.7 63.5 60.7 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.6 9.7 0.9 66.6 60.5 6.5 8.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.7 8.5 0.9 68.2 63.1 5.9 6.8 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.7 6.2 0.5 59.7 57.3 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.7 9.3 10.2 0.9 65.4 58.8 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------