***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 23.3 22.4 2.3 90.1 78.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 22.7 23.5 21.9 1.9 84.0 73.4 20.9 21.7 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 22.8 23.9 22.3 2.2 88.1 76.8 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 15.8 17.3 20.7 2.2 90.1 77.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 23.1 24.4 21.1 2.3 89.7 78.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 22.4 23.9 19.7 2.5 91.0 80.7 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 22.2 23.0 21.8 1.9 84.5 73.8 20.6 21.3 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 12.7 13.7 19.6 2.2 87.9 77.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 22.9 24.2 21.7 2.4 90.3 79.1 21.0 21.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 22.7 23.9 20.4 2.3 89.0 78.1 20.6 21.5 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 23.1 24.3 21.0 2.4 90.1 79.1 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 22.6 23.8 20.6 2.3 88.7 78.1 20.5 21.4 22.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 23.5 24.8 20.5 2.5 89.6 79.2 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 23.2 24.0 20.7 1.8 82.9 72.6 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 22.6 24.2 21.4 2.4 92.6 80.2 20.8 21.6 22.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 23.9 25.2 20.8 2.5 90.3 79.5 22.0 22.8 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 21.8 22.5 21.3 1.7 81.4 70.9 20.2 21.0 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 22.0 23.0 19.6 2.2 87.0 76.3 20.0 20.8 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 22.5 23.4 22.0 2.0 84.7 74.0 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 18.6 19.4 17.4 1.9 84.9 74.5 16.6 17.4 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 22.8 24.0 22.1 2.2 89.2 77.7 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 22.6 23.2 21.1 1.5 78.5 68.8 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 22.7 23.7 22.0 2.1 85.7 74.8 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 22.9 24.0 21.0 2.1 86.8 75.9 20.9 21.7 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 22.2 23.3 21.1 2.3 90.3 78.1 20.6 21.3 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 23.3 24.2 19.9 2.0 85.2 75.7 21.1 22.1 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 22.4 23.6 21.7 2.2 89.6 77.8 20.7 21.5 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 23.0 24.5 21.2 2.3 90.7 78.6 20.8 21.8 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 17.9 18.8 18.6 2.0 85.4 75.0 15.8 16.6 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 22.4 23.3 22.2 2.0 86.0 75.0 20.7 21.4 22.2 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------