***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 26.0 24.7 2.9 85.8 80.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 25.2 26.1 24.0 2.3 79.0 74.6 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 25.4 26.6 24.5 2.6 82.7 77.8 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 18.6 20.0 22.4 2.6 85.1 79.6 14.7 16.3 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 26.1 27.4 23.2 2.7 83.9 78.9 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 25.1 25.8 20.8 2.1 78.3 73.9 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 24.8 25.7 23.9 2.4 79.5 75.0 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 14.8 15.5 20.9 2.2 78.0 73.7 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 25.9 27.4 24.1 2.9 85.3 80.3 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 25.4 26.6 22.2 2.6 81.7 76.9 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 25.7 26.8 22.8 2.5 81.9 77.1 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 25.0 25.9 21.9 2.2 78.5 74.0 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 26.1 27.0 22.2 2.3 79.1 74.3 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 25.4 26.4 22.6 2.1 77.1 72.4 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 25.6 27.3 24.0 2.7 87.8 81.7 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 26.7 27.7 22.6 2.5 81.4 76.5 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 24.1 24.8 23.2 2.1 75.7 71.7 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 24.5 25.5 21.1 2.3 79.5 74.8 20.8 22.4 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 25.0 26.0 24.1 2.4 79.9 75.4 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 20.7 21.3 18.8 2.0 75.4 71.5 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 25.5 26.7 24.4 2.6 82.8 77.9 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 24.8 25.5 22.9 1.8 73.1 69.4 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 25.3 26.4 24.0 2.5 81.4 76.7 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 25.2 26.3 22.8 2.4 80.1 75.2 21.5 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 25.1 26.4 23.4 2.7 84.5 79.1 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 25.9 26.0 21.0 1.6 71.2 67.7 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 25.0 26.4 23.9 2.7 84.3 79.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 26.0 27.3 23.1 2.5 84.7 79.2 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 20.2 21.0 20.1 2.2 77.5 73.3 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 25.1 26.1 24.3 2.5 81.3 76.8 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------