***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 22.8 22.4 2.6 82.7 70.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 22.7 23.5 22.0 2.4 79.5 68.1 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 22.9 23.8 22.5 2.6 81.4 70.0 20.4 21.5 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 16.1 17.4 20.8 2.4 80.8 70.3 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 23.0 24.0 21.1 2.5 80.8 70.7 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 22.2 23.5 19.8 2.7 82.5 72.8 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 22.3 23.0 21.9 2.4 79.5 68.3 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.7 19.8 2.5 80.0 69.8 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 23.0 24.1 21.6 2.6 81.2 71.1 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 22.6 23.6 20.5 2.6 80.3 70.3 19.9 21.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 23.1 24.2 21.0 2.6 81.8 71.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 22.7 23.7 20.8 2.6 81.1 70.7 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 23.5 24.5 20.5 2.7 81.8 71.6 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 23.5 24.1 21.0 2.3 77.3 66.9 20.9 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 22.5 23.9 21.1 2.5 83.2 71.9 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 23.9 25.0 20.8 2.7 82.0 71.9 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 21.9 22.5 21.5 2.2 77.9 66.8 19.8 20.8 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 22.3 23.1 19.8 2.5 78.6 68.8 19.6 20.8 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 22.5 23.4 22.2 2.5 80.0 68.4 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 18.8 19.5 17.7 2.2 77.4 67.4 16.3 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 22.8 23.8 22.1 2.6 81.2 70.6 20.3 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 22.7 23.3 21.4 2.1 76.4 65.7 20.5 21.6 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 22.8 23.6 22.2 2.5 80.2 68.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.9 21.2 2.5 79.4 68.9 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 22.2 23.4 21.1 2.5 82.0 70.2 19.7 20.9 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 23.2 23.9 20.1 2.4 79.2 69.7 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 22.5 23.7 21.7 2.6 82.2 70.1 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 22.9 24.2 21.1 2.4 81.4 71.1 19.6 21.1 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 18.1 18.8 18.9 2.4 77.6 67.9 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 22.4 23.3 22.3 2.5 80.6 69.0 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------