***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 20.0 18.5 0.7 61.3 54.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 17.6 20.1 18.1 0.4 56.1 51.6 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 17.8 20.4 18.5 0.6 58.4 53.7 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 10.8 13.6 16.9 0.7 61.4 56.0 11.3 12.7 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 18.0 20.6 17.2 0.7 60.7 56.2 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 19.9 20.5 16.1 1.0 64.7 60.5 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 17.2 19.8 18.1 0.5 57.4 52.0 17.9 19.2 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.9 15.9 0.6 58.3 56.9 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 17.9 20.5 17.6 0.7 60.5 56.0 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 17.9 20.1 16.6 0.6 58.9 56.3 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 18.2 20.8 17.1 0.8 62.3 58.2 18.5 19.8 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 19.9 20.2 16.9 0.7 60.6 58.2 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 20.7 21.1 16.7 0.9 62.3 59.2 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 18.1 20.2 17.0 0.1 52.0 51.8 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 17.5 20.2 17.3 0.9 64.8 57.8 17.9 19.1 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.6 17.0 0.9 63.1 58.9 19.3 20.6 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 17.0 19.4 17.7 0.4 55.5 51.1 17.7 19.0 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 17.1 19.0 15.9 0.4 55.6 54.7 17.3 18.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 17.5 19.9 18.3 0.4 55.7 51.8 18.1 19.5 20.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.1 13.9 0.2 53.2 54.6 14.6 15.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 17.9 20.4 18.1 0.7 60.0 55.1 18.3 19.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 17.7 19.9 17.6 0.2 52.3 50.3 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 18.0 20.2 18.2 0.4 55.3 52.2 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 17.9 20.2 17.2 0.4 55.9 53.8 18.4 19.8 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 17.7 19.9 17.2 0.8 62.3 55.8 18.0 19.1 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.5 20.6 16.4 0.6 58.8 57.5 18.9 20.0 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 17.8 20.3 17.8 0.8 61.9 55.3 18.2 19.5 20.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 17.4 20.3 17.3 0.8 62.6 57.1 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 13.3 15.1 15.0 0.3 53.6 54.2 13.5 14.9 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 17.5 19.9 18.4 0.5 57.4 52.4 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------