***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 2.4 9.7 53.9 43.0 35.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.5 6.7 10.9 63.0 47.9 42.1 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.0 5.6 9.0 54.8 40.6 34.6 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.7 5.2 9.2 50.2 39.4 33.6 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.8 8.5 49.1 35.3 29.8 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.3 4.4 10.7 54.4 39.6 33.3 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.3 7.2 11.3 63.8 47.6 41.2 4.1 7.8 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 4.5 5.9 10.5 54.9 37.8 32.3 4.7 10.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.0 4.3 9.0 55.3 38.9 33.7 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 3.4 4.5 10.1 53.8 37.0 32.3 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.3 3.1 8.0 47.9 35.5 29.6 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.6 3.5 8.6 50.4 36.5 30.1 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.4 10.8 56.9 40.1 33.3 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 3.8 4.5 9.5 49.5 34.4 30.8 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.5 3.5 8.4 46.5 38.8 32.1 2.6 5.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.5 3.4 9.5 53.9 39.0 32.5 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.2 7.5 11.9 69.5 51.1 44.8 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.2 11.8 57.9 37.1 33.4 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 6.0 10.2 59.7 45.6 40.2 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.2 5.8 15.5 63.9 40.5 36.1 4.1 8.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.2 4.8 8.5 51.9 40.1 33.8 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.2 7.3 12.3 70.4 52.1 45.7 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.4 5.0 9.3 55.2 41.3 36.2 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.4 4.8 10.3 56.8 37.6 32.8 3.7 8.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.3 5.0 10.1 54.0 40.3 34.4 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.4 5.2 10.7 62.5 42.4 35.3 3.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.5 5.5 10.9 57.1 44.0 37.2 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.6 3.7 8.7 49.6 39.3 33.0 2.6 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.7 7.3 13.1 60.9 39.0 35.2 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.1 4.5 10.4 59.7 45.7 39.7 2.4 5.5 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------