***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 10.9 10.1 92.0 61.6 44.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.5 13.3 111.1 67.8 48.0 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.0 9.8 83.1 58.0 42.4 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.0 11.5 8.0 64.8 52.3 37.0 4.6 10.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.6 7.7 7.6 58.4 48.8 34.8 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.5 6.6 8.0 44.7 42.0 31.1 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.2 10.9 13.6 114.2 68.7 49.4 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 5.7 9.7 7.7 49.9 42.7 29.3 6.7 12.3 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.7 7.5 8.0 60.8 49.0 35.7 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.7 8.9 8.4 56.0 46.0 32.4 5.4 10.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.8 7.0 6.4 49.3 43.9 30.2 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.3 5.6 5.8 44.7 41.1 28.0 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.0 6.0 7.0 44.0 40.5 29.3 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.7 12.3 12.8 80.1 55.8 39.5 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.8 8.7 7.5 63.2 52.6 36.2 3.6 8.1 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.2 5.5 6.7 46.5 42.4 30.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.0 14.5 116.2 69.4 48.6 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.1 8.5 10.8 62.2 47.1 34.3 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.1 10.2 12.6 105.2 66.2 47.1 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 5.3 11.1 14.2 65.1 49.0 35.2 6.0 11.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.0 8.0 69.4 52.9 38.7 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.6 14.3 108.4 67.3 49.3 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.5 10.7 11.8 95.2 63.1 45.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.2 9.4 10.4 69.1 50.7 37.2 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.6 12.0 10.2 80.7 57.9 42.7 4.5 9.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 3.5 5.6 6.5 44.0 40.5 26.9 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.4 14.0 11.3 92.0 61.8 45.2 4.6 9.2 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.3 7.3 7.1 56.2 48.9 33.8 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.9 15.0 12.9 67.5 49.4 35.7 7.5 15.2 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.9 9.9 12.4 107.3 66.7 48.2 2.8 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------