***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 10.3 9.1 94.2 63.3 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.5 9.1 10.2 103.1 65.7 46.8 2.1 4.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.6 8.3 86.4 60.4 43.1 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.1 15.8 9.4 87.1 61.0 45.3 6.0 11.3 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.5 8.4 78.4 57.9 44.4 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.5 11.1 87.6 61.2 46.0 2.7 6.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 10.3 10.8 107.6 67.0 47.7 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 11.9 9.2 76.0 56.6 44.5 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.8 8.0 74.4 56.4 43.7 3.3 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.7 8.8 72.6 54.9 43.7 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.0 9.2 7.9 79.0 57.6 44.0 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.8 8.0 80.6 58.3 43.6 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.7 9.7 81.5 58.8 44.5 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.6 11.7 10.2 75.7 56.7 43.3 4.9 9.4 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.9 12.0 9.5 96.1 64.2 45.5 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.8 8.7 83.0 59.4 44.9 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.4 9.2 11.0 104.8 66.2 48.2 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.3 10.2 72.1 54.7 43.6 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 9.0 9.4 94.5 62.8 45.1 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 10.9 13.9 74.7 55.9 44.7 4.7 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.3 8.1 81.2 59.4 44.4 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.7 9.7 10.7 98.5 64.3 47.4 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.8 8.7 81.3 58.4 42.5 3.1 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.8 9.1 74.6 56.2 42.8 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.5 10.6 90.6 62.4 46.0 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.0 9.3 9.2 83.8 60.1 41.9 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.8 10.7 95.7 63.9 45.7 2.1 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.9 8.9 89.3 61.7 45.1 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 12.6 11.7 72.8 54.7 43.4 6.1 10.9 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.4 8.4 9.7 100.5 64.8 45.5 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------