***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 19.6 12.3 133.3 73.9 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 15.1 20.9 14.6 169.2 81.1 60.4 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.0 20.6 13.2 139.3 75.2 55.7 3.6 7.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 14.6 22.0 13.9 124.3 72.1 54.4 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.6 16.1 13.6 123.4 71.7 56.4 3.8 7.6 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.4 16.9 14.5 102.8 66.6 52.7 5.0 9.7 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 13.2 17.7 14.3 162.4 79.8 59.3 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.8 22.5 14.1 108.1 67.1 54.6 7.7 13.6 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.3 18.2 14.0 126.8 72.4 56.7 3.6 8.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.4 18.5 15.1 120.1 70.5 56.6 3.9 8.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.4 14.5 12.9 120.1 70.9 57.2 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 14.4 11.7 110.4 68.0 54.4 3.0 6.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.3 16.6 12.5 107.8 67.7 54.9 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 22.7 27.9 17.6 144.6 76.3 58.3 4.1 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.4 15.1 14.0 131.0 73.9 53.2 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 13.9 12.6 113.4 69.3 56.3 2.8 6.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 10.2 14.9 14.9 178.7 82.6 62.4 2.1 4.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 21.5 17.6 122.9 71.0 56.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 17.0 23.8 14.6 167.7 80.7 60.3 3.0 7.0 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 16.7 19.6 105.0 66.1 55.1 5.1 9.8 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 19.9 12.9 130.4 73.3 56.2 4.1 8.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 13.4 19.8 14.9 177.4 82.3 64.9 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.0 21.6 14.9 157.3 78.8 59.3 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.5 23.4 16.0 133.0 73.7 56.7 3.8 9.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.8 18.3 13.7 124.8 71.9 54.0 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.9 17.5 12.3 113.9 69.4 54.5 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.7 17.0 13.5 130.8 73.3 54.7 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.7 12.3 13.8 123.6 72.1 54.4 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.3 26.9 19.4 121.2 70.6 56.6 6.8 13.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 14.2 18.5 13.9 156.9 78.8 58.5 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------