***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 38.7 41.2 86.1 50.6 44.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 41.3 43.3 49.0 102.6 60.6 52.2 24.1 35.1 48.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 29.5 41.6 40.3 85.1 48.3 42.0 30.3 42.8 57.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 39.3 51.1 40.4 77.0 43.4 39.3 41.0 58.3 78.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 28.0 34.8 38.2 73.1 40.0 37.3 29.7 42.4 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 30.7 34.8 44.3 68.8 36.5 34.6 32.4 45.2 60.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 41.6 43.3 50.0 103.1 60.8 52.4 21.9 34.0 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 44.5 49.9 41.6 69.5 34.9 33.2 48.0 64.2 82.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 28.9 35.6 39.1 76.1 41.8 38.0 29.0 42.1 57.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 31.6 36.9 42.3 72.6 37.2 34.7 33.8 47.4 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 24.3 29.8 35.2 69.9 38.4 35.8 26.1 39.0 54.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 23.9 27.5 34.2 67.3 35.4 33.3 26.0 38.8 54.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 27.2 32.4 40.0 68.6 35.6 33.7 30.5 43.3 58.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 39.4 52.8 50.2 82.3 45.6 40.2 39.7 57.6 78.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 24.4 34.9 39.4 77.9 44.8 38.8 25.4 39.4 56.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 23.0 27.4 37.4 70.0 38.0 35.3 24.4 35.8 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 34.1 38.3 52.4 108.0 63.2 54.5 19.2 28.8 40.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 30.5 38.5 50.4 76.1 37.9 34.7 34.1 50.1 69.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 44.6 44.2 46.8 98.1 57.7 49.7 26.0 37.9 52.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 40.3 47.3 63.1 75.8 36.5 34.9 44.2 58.3 73.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 30.7 39.8 37.4 78.4 44.3 39.5 30.7 44.9 61.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 40.8 43.7 52.2 104.6 61.6 53.9 24.4 35.0 47.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 47.5 41.7 44.7 90.4 52.2 45.0 26.9 39.9 55.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 31.4 41.9 45.8 79.8 42.4 37.4 32.9 49.7 70.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 31.3 41.6 44.7 82.7 46.4 41.5 31.3 44.4 60.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 28.0 34.7 38.8 72.2 40.1 36.7 29.6 42.1 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 47.5 40.1 46.4 87.7 50.5 44.7 26.8 39.6 55.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 24.7 32.7 38.5 74.9 42.6 37.9 25.7 38.8 54.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 47.1 59.0 57.1 78.5 39.1 35.8 51.4 72.8 97.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 39.6 38.5 46.5 97.8 57.6 49.6 22.0 32.8 46.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------