***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.2 14.9 1.4 71.7 69.7 9.9 10.9 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 12.2 12.5 14.7 1.8 77.0 74.8 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 14.4 14.7 15.3 1.8 77.3 75.4 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 9.8 10.3 12.7 1.7 78.8 76.2 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 11.2 11.3 12.9 1.1 68.6 67.3 9.0 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 10.1 10.1 10.2 0.8 66.6 65.3 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 12.3 12.6 14.8 1.8 76.8 74.8 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.4 10.6 1.2 71.7 69.9 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 11.3 11.7 12.5 0.7 62.4 61.5 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 11.8 11.9 11.4 1.1 70.2 68.6 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 10.6 11.2 12.3 0.9 66.1 64.9 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 10.2 10.3 11.4 1.1 69.3 67.7 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 10.1 9.7 10.3 -0.2 47.0 46.9 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.4 12.6 1.2 70.4 69.1 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 12.6 12.9 14.3 1.6 79.4 77.5 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 11.4 11.8 11.5 0.6 61.6 60.6 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 12.4 12.9 14.5 1.9 78.8 76.5 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.1 10.8 1.2 71.8 70.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 12.4 12.9 15.1 2.1 80.4 78.2 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 6.9 7.1 9.2 1.1 69.2 67.8 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 10.9 11.5 13.7 0.8 64.4 63.4 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 11.6 11.9 14.8 2.0 79.4 77.4 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 12.2 13.0 15.4 2.4 85.1 83.1 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 11.7 11.8 12.6 1.2 71.2 69.8 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 12.3 12.2 13.9 1.0 65.7 64.2 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.3 10.1 9.8 0.0 50.4 50.0 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.6 12.3 14.0 0.9 64.3 63.0 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 10.7 11.0 12.7 1.3 74.5 72.4 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 10.0 10.1 10.2 1.3 72.1 70.7 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 12.7 13.1 15.2 1.9 78.3 76.2 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------