***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.2 11.3 -0.1 48.2 48.2 8.1 9.3 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.8 9.4 11.0 0.0 49.5 48.9 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.3 11.6 11.4 0.0 50.6 49.6 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.4 6.7 8.4 -0.2 47.3 47.9 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.2 8.6 -0.3 45.2 46.6 7.3 8.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.5 7.0 -0.1 47.7 48.8 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 8.2 9.6 11.1 0.0 50.1 49.3 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.6 6.9 -0.2 47.3 48.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 8.4 9.5 8.9 -0.3 45.0 46.6 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.9 7.6 -0.2 45.9 47.4 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.4 8.0 -0.2 46.4 47.3 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.1 7.4 7.4 -0.2 47.1 48.0 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.5 7.7 6.9 -0.4 44.0 45.9 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.4 9.5 9.0 -0.2 47.0 47.7 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.6 9.5 0.0 49.9 49.7 8.5 9.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 8.1 9.3 7.5 -0.3 45.4 46.7 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.5 10.6 -0.2 46.9 47.1 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 7.7 6.9 -0.2 46.5 48.2 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.6 11.1 0.0 50.7 49.6 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.1 5.3 -0.3 45.1 47.7 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.7 9.0 10.3 -0.2 46.0 46.9 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.4 8.7 10.6 -0.1 48.9 48.4 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.6 9.3 11.0 0.1 52.1 50.5 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.8 8.8 -0.1 48.1 48.7 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.4 9.8 -0.3 45.4 46.5 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.9 8.3 7.0 -0.1 48.4 49.1 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.2 9.7 10.5 -0.2 46.4 47.0 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.4 7.7 8.6 -0.2 47.2 47.9 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.3 6.5 -0.2 46.2 48.2 6.5 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.4 10.0 11.3 0.1 50.9 49.9 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------